NBA DFS Monday: Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel (November 15)


NBA Player Models are the cornerstone of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the start of what you’ll find inside. You will also find our Trends tool and much more.

Let’s dive into our models, position by position, looking at the guys with some of the highest ceiling projections, as well as the players who stand out as values ​​with our projected plus / minus predictive metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large court tournaments you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly build up to 150 queues, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to build your squads by hand.

Note: Projections and leverage of scores / ratings may change throughout the day after the publication of this article. Check out the player models directly for any updates.

Guard point

Upper Cap: Ja Morant vs. Houston Rockets – $ 10,000 DraftKings, $ 10,000 FanDuel

Another slate, another stacked leader’s post. The best place I see tonight is Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies hosting the Houston Rockets, who have lost 11 straight games. The good thing is that they are great for fancy. They play at the fastest pace in the league this season and show no signs of defending.

The Memphis Grizzlies have the highest implied total tonight at 115 points. It’s a perfect place to bounce back for the Grizzlies, who have lost three games in a row. Morant leads Memphis in points, assists and steals this season. He’s on absolute tear right now. Morant has scored over 50 DraftKings points in four straight games. The third-year player is averaging a career-high in minutes, points, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, rebounds and steals.

It might seem odd to see Morant so expensive, but he’s worth every penny in this game.

Max Value: Dennis Schroder at Cleveland Cavaliers – $ 6,500 DraftKings, $ 5,700 FanDuel

I realize Dennis schröder isn’t necessarily that cheap on the slate tonight, but I still think it offers a lot of value. Its price on FanDuel is exceptional because it has a score of 94%. He showed the advantage of getting almost 50 DraftKings points like he did two games ago. The opportunities will continue to be there with Jaylen brown sidelined.

With Brown out, Schroder took on a much bigger role for the Boston Celtics. He has scored 20 or more points in five straight games as he has attempted 19 field goals per game during that span. This game against the Cleveland Cavaliers is a rematch from two nights ago when Schroder scored 28 points but failed to knock the jumper off the baseline in order to send the game into overtime. I will gladly continue to play Schroder, especially at its low price on FanDuel.

There are a ton of valuable guards that could open up later in the day. A few to name Anfernée Simons if Damien lillard is outside. Goran Dragic if Fred van vleet is outside. Even the Nuggets guards though Will barton is outside. Make sure to follow up on each status as we get closer to locking our news dashboard. We will keep you posted!

Shooting guard

Upper Ceiling: Devin Booker at Minnesota Timberwolves – $ 8,900 DraftKings, $ 8,100 FanDuel

The price on Devin Booker on both sites came down recently and I’m not sure exactly why. In competitive games, Booker always plays well over 30 minutes per game and still has an average usage rate of over 30%. He has yet to play a game this season where he has managed less than 15 field goal attempts. Booker gets his punches no matter what.

The bigger question in this game is, can the Minnesota Timberwolves keep this game competitive so Booker can keep this usage high? The line at least suggests they will, as the Suns are a 3-point favorite tonight as this game has the highest total on the slate with 223 points. The Suns have won eight straight games as they climb the Western Conference standings. They won 115-89 last night over the Houston Rockets and Booker had 47 DraftKings points in 32 minutes.

Booker’s salary has gone down on both sites, but I prefer him on FanDuel where he has a good 94% rating.

Best Value: Alex Caruso at Los Angeles Lakers – $ 4,000 DraftKings, $ 4,400 FanDuel

Alex Caruso got a surprise start for the Chicago Bulls last night as they kept their rotation very tight. Caruso started and played 39 minutes, a team and season high. He only shot 2-11 from the field, but finished with seven points, nine rebounds, five assists, one block and three steals. Complete the stats sheet as it normally does for 33.75 DraftKings points.

If Caruso does it again tonight, he’s the best value game on the slate and a gambling staple. We must keep in mind that the Bulls keep Coby White is back tonight and should see his first action of the season. I imagine if he plays he will be limited in minutes, but his status is something we need to watch out for. I still don’t think this will take much away from Caruso, especially at this price point at both sites. The Lakers are third on pace this season, which makes him feel good.

Small before

Upper Ceiling: Jayson Tatum in Cleveland Cavaliers – $ 9,800 DraftKings, $ 9,500 FanDuel

After a few bad matches in a row, the price of Jayson tatum on DraftKings again fell below $ 10,000. With Jaylen Brown still out, that’s a price I will continue to pay. His last game against the Cavaliers two nights ago left a lot to be desired. He shot 8-22 from the field for just 26.5 DraftKings points, which was his second-lowest result of the season.

Tatum has shown a huge rise this season with a few games over 50 DraftKings points and one game in 65, but he still has an Over / Under negative in nine of his 13 games. Which Tatum will we have tonight? The Celtics and Cavaliers have the lowest total on the slate with 199.5 points. I would keep Tatum as a tournament option only tonight, but he has one of the slate’s biggest advantages playing without Brown in a hotly contested game.

Best Value: Kevin Huerter vs. Orlando Magic – $ 3,800 DraftKings, $ 4,200 FanDuel

This slate is already awash with valuable games and here’s another one with the Atlanta Hawks wing Kevin huerter. With De’André Hunter absent for eight weeks due to injury, Huerter will start in his place. He played a 33-minute high last night, but only finished with 20 DraftKings points. It was the Young Traé show as he exploded for 42 points, eight rebounds and 10 assists. It was very necessary for the Hawks, as they had lost six straight games before last night.

If I can get Red Velvet (as the cool kids call Huerter) to play 33 minutes again tonight against the Orlando Magic, sign me up. The Magic are ranked 26th in the defensive standings this season as the Hawks are big favorites with 10.5 points tonight. Two games ago, Huerter scored 28 points as he scored six 3-pointers en route to a 42.25 DraftKings performance.

I love that price tag for Huerter on both sites tonight. Sign me up for Red Velvet!

Forward power

Upper Cap: Anthony Davis vs. Chicago Bulls – $ 10,400 DraftKings, $ 10,700 FanDuel

One of the best, but most infuriating players to join NBA DFS has to be Anthony davis. He left a game due to illness, but even including that game, Davis has an Over / Under positive in five of his last seven games. He recorded two games with over 60 DraftKings points and even one game with over 70 DraftKings points during that long streak.

James lebron will continue to sit, which is great news for Davis. In eight games without James this season, Davis is averaging 26 points per game, 11.8 rebounds per game and 20.4 field goal attempts per game. The offense runs through Davis for as long as Russell westbrook don’t try to get too much of the upper hand. The Chicago Bulls are in the top five in defensive odds and points allowed this season. The game is not ideal, but Davis still has a high ceiling tonight.

Best Value: Kyle Kuzma vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $ 6,700 DraftKings, $ 6,800 FanDuel

With Bradley Beal once again sidelined, there are two Washington Wizards players who catch my eye. Kyle kuzma and Spencer dinwiddie. The latter is in a stacked guard position, so it may be more difficult to get too. Kuzma is in a relatively weaker position and is cheaper on DraftKings. So this is my favorite tonight, but you can easily play both.

Kuzma recorded a double-double in both games Beal sat this season. He averages 21.5 points per game, 10.5 rebounds per game and 43.13 DraftKings points per game. This game against the New Orleans 2-12 Pelicans is the best game it can be. They rank 29th in the defensive standings as they allowed 111.7 points per game. Kuzma is also averaging a career-high 2.6 points scored at 3 points per game. The Pelicans allow the third best percentage of 3 points.


Upper Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at the Dallas Mavericks – $ 11,700 DraftKings, $ 11,500 FanDuel

After a “failed” performance last night due to a rash, I immediately returned to Nikola Jokic this evening. The Denver Nuggets beat the Portland Trail Blazers 124-95 last night, with Jokic playing just 28 minutes. He did some damage when he was on the ground – Jokic finished with 28 points, nine rebounds and nine assists shooting 11-17 from the field for 52.75 DraftKings points.

This game against the Dallas Mavericks is not very intimidating. They rank in the bottom five for points allowed in the paint with 48 per game. They also rank 29th in allowing defensive rebounds this season. Their internal defense is non-existent. The best part about Jokic is that his support numbers are back. With Michael Porter Jr. Absent the last three games, Jokic has averaged 9.7 assists per game. He has two triple doubles and would have had a third if the Trail Blazers had kept him close last night. The risk of a blowout should be mitigated tonight as the Nuggets play Dallas tonight as a 4.5-point underdog.

Max Value: Tony Bradley at Los Angeles Lakers – $ 3,500 DraftKings, $ 3,900 FanDuel

The Chicago Bulls, as I mentioned above, had a very tight rotation last night, but that included Tony bradley who played 24 minutes. Bradley had just four points, five rebounds, a block and a steal, but playing that many minutes is going to be hard to avoid in this game. He will have to play, as the Lakers always seem to be playing with big lineups.

It also helps that Bradley is PF eligible on FanDuel. Bradley is the best value game of our tournament model tonight. Derrick Jones Jr. served as a direct save in Bradley’s last game, so they went with a small range of balls and didn’t even play Alize Johnson Where Tyler cook. Bradley’s price tag makes it a great game, especially considering it has a 98% opponent rating.


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