With the flea crisis still raging, disruption is the order of the day, and it’s safe to say that everything is going on in Germany right now.
The overall market saw its first signs of calm (+3% year-on-year), but this was due to strong BEV sales (+55% year-on-year). There were 28,306 BEV registrations last month, or 14% of the overall market. This drove the market higher, unlike diesel (-16%), gasoline (-6%) and even PHEV (-1%). The latter had 21,583 registrations, or 11% of the total market. Basically, BEVs quickly become the bread and butter of this market, something unthinkable not so long ago.
February’s 25% share took the year-to-date score to 23% (13% BEV), so a 30% result by the end of the year not only seems possible, but likely.
|1||Model 3"}”>Tesla Model 3||3,690||7.4%|
|2||Tesla Model Y||2,254||4.5%|
|3||Cupra Formentor PHEV||1,449||2.9%|
|5||Hyundai Kona EV||1,312||2.6%|
|8||Ford Kuga PHEV||1,091||2.2%|
|12||Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross PHEV||980||2.0%|
|14||Hyundai Ioniq 5||948||1.9%|
|15||Smart Fortwo EV||921||1.8%|
|16||Electric Mini Cooper||855||1.7%|
|17||BMW X1 PHEV||851||1.7%|
|18||Audi A3 PHEV||847||1.7%|
Tesla had a great month, earning its first Gold+Silver win in Germany. The Model 3’s winning score is no longer a surprise, and February’s result wasn’t even a record-breaking off-peak performance. The second place Model Y was, and this record score was achieved using units made in China. So if the crossover can score 2,254 units with Chinese units, imagine how far it can go with future Made in Germany units….
But back to the winning performance of the Model 3 — the 3,690 registrations put it in 4th place overall, and we might expect it to reach some 6,000 registrations in March, which will surely give it a place on the podium in the general classification.
In another sign of the disruptive and historic times we live in, the top-ranked German model in February, the Mercedes GLC PHEV, was just 6th.
the hot spanish Cupra Formentor PHEV closed the podium, followed by the cute italian Fiat 500e in 4th and the competitive Korean Hyundai Kona EV in 5th. The best-selling Volkswagen, the ID.4, was only 9th….
In keeping with the trend of foreign models that shine, in #12 we have the Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross PHEV scoring a record 980 registrations, proving there’s still life in the Japanese automaker. In #14 we have the Hyundai Ioniq 5 with 948 registrations. The Korean manufacturer thus placed two models in the top 20 last month.
It is also interesting to see that 11 models of this top 20 were foreign models. I wonder what VDA has to say about this….
Outside the top 20, we find the VW e-Up (746 registrations), whose poor performance is no doubt explained by production constraints, but also the Opel Corsa EV (702 units) and the Audi Q4 e -tron (647), with the latter failing to replicate at home the good performance it achieves elsewhere.
In terms of recent launches, the ramp-up in delivery of the Mercedes EQS is worth highlighting, with 300 units last month, as it paves the way for the potential future full-size best-seller, the Mercedes EQE.
|1||Tesla Model 3||3,967||4.4%|
|3||Tesla Model Y||2,396||2.7%|
|5||Hyundai Kona EV||2,317||2.6%|
|6||Cupra Formentor PHEV||2,037||2.3%|
|8||Ford Kuga PHEV||1,944||2.2%|
|11||Hyundai Ioniq 5||1,902||2.1%|
|14||Vauxhall Corsa EV||1,753||2.0%|
|15||Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross PHEV||1,738||1.9%|
|16||Smart Fortwo EV||1,715||1.9%|
|17||VW e Up!||1,607||1.8%|
|18||Electric Mini Cooper||1,583||1.8%|
When it comes to the 2022 chart, the Tesla Model 3 is already in the lead, with a comfortable 1,300 unit lead over the surprise second Fiat 500e, and with the Tesla Model Y already 3rd, we could see Tesla take 1st and 2nd in Germany by the end of the year. If the rise of Giga Berlin continues as expected, the Model Y should end the year as the best-selling electric vehicle in this market, followed by the Model 3. So far, the Model 3 has a rolling average this quarter of 3,354 units per month. . While this is down 11% from Q4 2021 (3,760 units/month), it’s still 14% above 2021’s monthly average of 2,938 units, so expect the sedan slightly increases its 2021 score by 35,000 units this year. In view of the closest competition, do not expect much from them, because they are either old (VW e-Up, Renault Zoe, Smart Fortwo EV), and therefore unable to significantly improve their past performance, be strongly constrained in production, because This is the case with the VW ID.3, which is now being pushed back by other models (such as the more profitable VW ID.4 and Audi Q4 e-tron) in the race for limited supply of components currently available to the Volkswagen Group. Those constraints only starting to ease in the second half, so don’t expect much from the VW sedan this year.
But the poor performance of German automakers does not end there. As already seen in the monthly table, only three German models are present in the YTD top 10. And besides the possible humiliation of having not one but two Teslas at the top of the PEV chart, it’s worth pointing out that of the three small models (A & B segments) present in this top 10 — the Fiat 500e, Hyundai Kona EV and Renault Zoe — neither is a domestic model. This highlights another problem German automakers need to address, in addition to the Tesla threat in the midsize car category: where are their small EVs?
They are found in the second half of the table (#13 BMW i3, #14 Opel Corsa EV, #16 Smart Fortwo EV, #17 VW e-Up), but most are close to age retirement, while the Opel model is a remodeled Peugeot 208. (Turns out Opel going to Stellantis was the best thing that could have happened to it.)
And while BMW and Mercedes shouldn’t worry too much (after all, small cars aren’t really their thing), for Volkswagen it’s a different ball game, and with the release dates of their small electric vehicles not expected to land until 2025, precious years will be wasted – not just for other legacy OEMs (like the 2nd generation of small electric vehicles from Stellantis and Renault, which arrives earlier than VW), but also to Asian competition (which will then be much more diverse and fierce than it is today).
But back to the YTD table, 14 fully electric models are now in this year’s top 20, and with the Renault Twingo EV, Audi Q4 e-tron and Opel Mokka EV less than 300 units from the Mercedes A250e , this number could rise to 15 in March.
In the ranking of brands, the leader Mercedes (12.8%) is taking advantage of its looong lineup to take the lead in its domestic market, ahead of its great rival BMW (10%), which is holding on to second place.
Volkswagen (9.2%) remains 3rd, followed by Audi (7.5%).
In the race for the “Best Selling Foreigner”, Tesla (7.1%) has overtaken Hyundai and is now in 5th place. Next month, expect it to overtake the #4 Audi, while closing in on volkswagen and threatening his rival’s position in his own house.
Looking at the rankings by OEM, the ranking remained the same, with the Volkswagen Group having its home market well in hand, with 24% market share, followed far behind by Daimler (15.6%) and Stellantis ( 13.5%).
BMW Group is 4th, with 12.3%, followed at a safe distance by the #5 Hyundai-Kia collaboration (9.5%).
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